From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
“MATHEMATICIANS LOOK FOR PATTERNS IN RUSSIAN HISTORY
The Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of
Sciences has hosted a conference to announce the creation of a new
academic discipline called mathematical modeling of historical
processes, “Nezavisimaya gazeta” reported on November 14. Institute
Deputy Director Georgy Malinetsky said the event was making
“mathematical history.” Malinetsky said the goal of research in the
new field is to create analytical and prognostic models of social
phenomena. Conference participants predicted that a historical
catastrophe can be expected in Russia in the next decade; the country
has undergone significant catastrophes in the first two decades of
every century since the 1600s (the Time of Troubles in 1610-13, the
Great Northern War of 1708-09; the Napoleonic wars of 1812-14, and
World War I, 1914-17, and the Bolshevik revolution of 1917).
Conference participants also discussed the accelerating disintegration
of Russian models of statehood, noting that the Muscovite state lasted
600 years, the Romanov dynasty lasted 300 years, and the Soviet Union
lasted just 74 years. The mathematicians predicted that the current
phase of Russian statehood will not last longer than 30 years. RC”
